IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+3.2	#119
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.1	#113
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.3	#107

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.9	#135

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.5%	0.6%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	26.3%	26.6%	15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.2	13.2	14.5

.500 or above	93.0%	93.5%	76.3%
.500 or above in Conference	94.5%	94.7%	86.7%
Conference Champion	31.4%	31.9%	16.2%
Last Place in Conference	0.3%	0.3%	1.2%

First Four	0.7%	0.7%	1.3%
First Round	26.0%	26.3%	15.4%
Second Round	4.8%	4.9%	1.7%
Sweet Sixteen	1.4%	1.5%	0.3%
Elite Eight	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 3
Quad 3	4 - 3	5 - 6
Quad 4	15 - 2	20 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 09, 2019	346	Southern	W	80-60	97%
Nov 12, 2019	30	@ Tennessee	L	69-81	13%
Nov 19, 2019	207	Southern Illinois	W	74-65	80%
Nov 25, 2019	189	La Salle	W	77-72	68%
Dec 03, 2019	125	@ Missouri St.	L	70-73	42%
Dec 07, 2019	174	Middle Tennessee	W	76-69	73%
Dec 16, 2019	320	Kennesaw St.	W	82-66	92%
Dec 21, 2019	182	@ Evansville	W	75-73	57%
Jan 02, 2020	258	Tennessee Martin	W	83-71	84%
Jan 04, 2020	294	Southeast Missouri St.	W	82-68	88%
Jan 09, 2020	216	@ Jacksonville St.	W	73-70	61%
Jan 11, 2020	310	@ Tennessee Tech	W	77-68	78%
Jan 16, 2020	258	@ Tennessee Martin	W	80-74	69%
Jan 18, 2020	294	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	79-71	75%
Jan 23, 2020	80	Belmont	L	79-80	48%
Jan 25, 2020	272	Tennessee St.	W	81-69	85%
Jan 30, 2020	255	Eastern Illinois	W	80-68	83%
Feb 01, 2020	324	SIU Edwardsville	W	85-68	92%
Feb 06, 2020	80	@ Belmont	L	76-83	30%
Feb 08, 2020	272	@ Tennessee St.	W	78-72	70%
Feb 13, 2020	211	@ Austin Peay	W	78-75	61%
Feb 15, 2020	264	Morehead St.	W	80-68	84%
Feb 20, 2020	255	@ Eastern Illinois	W	77-71	67%
Feb 22, 2020	324	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	82-71	81%
Feb 27, 2020	274	Eastern Kentucky	W	92-79	85%
Feb 29, 2020	211	Austin Peay	W	81-72	78%
Projected Record						18 - 8	13 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.2	1.0	3.8	7.6	9.4	6.9	2.5		31.4	1st
2nd											0.0	0.5	3.1	7.4	9.2	6.4	2.1	0.0			28.7	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.5	2.9	5.5	4.5	1.7	0.2					15.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.3	2.1	3.8	2.7	0.5	0.0						9.5	4th
5th									0.1	1.2	2.7	1.6	0.3	0.0							5.9	5th
6th								0.0	0.7	1.6	0.9	0.1	0.0								3.5	6th
7th							0.0	0.4	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.0									2.4	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.0										1.4	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.0											0.9	9th
10th				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1													0.6	10th
11th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.3	11th
12th	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0														0.1	12th

Total	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.5	2.5	4.1	6.3	9.0	11.7	13.4	14.7	14.3	11.5	6.9	2.5			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	2.5		2.5
17-1	100.0%	6.9		6.4	0.6
16-2	82.1%	9.4		7.0	2.4	0.0
15-3	53.5%	7.6		4.3	3.0	0.3	0.0
14-4	25.5%	3.8		1.4	1.8	0.6	0.1
13-5	7.3%	1.0		0.2	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.5%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0		0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	31.4%	31.4		21.7	8.2	1.3	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	2.5%		77.9%	69.8%	8.1%	9.5		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.6		26.9%
17-1	6.9%		58.7%	56.1%	2.6%	12.2					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.6	1.5	1.3	0.4	0.1		2.9		6.0%
16-2	11.5%		46.7%	46.4%	0.3%	12.9									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.5	2.1	1.3	0.2	0.0	6.1		0.6%
15-3	14.3%		36.8%	36.8%	0.1%	13.5										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	2.0	1.8	0.7	0.0	9.0		0.1%
14-4	14.7%		28.8%	28.7%	0.0%	14.0													0.2	1.0	1.7	1.2	0.1	10.5		0.0%
13-5	13.4%		18.8%	18.8%		14.5													0.0	0.3	1.0	1.0	0.3	10.9
12-6	11.7%		13.6%	13.6%		14.8														0.1	0.5	0.6	0.4	10.1
11-7	9.0%		7.9%	7.9%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	8.3
10-8	6.3%		6.0%	6.0%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	6.0
9-9	4.1%		3.5%	3.5%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.1	3.9
8-10	2.5%		1.4%	1.4%		16.0																0.0	0.0	2.5
7-11	1.5%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	1.5
6-12	0.8%																							0.8
5-13	0.4%																							0.4
4-14	0.1%																							0.1
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16	0.0%																							0.0
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		26.3%	25.9%	0.4%	13.2		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	1.1	4.3	7.0	6.8	4.2	1.5	73.7		0.6%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	5.3	0.4	2.8	3.7	22.4	24.9	32.2	7.8	2.8		0.4	2.5		0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	95.1%	10.1				1.6	4.9	3.3	4.9	3.3	1.6	24.6	26.2	23.0	1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	63.3%	9.9							0.8	1.7	25.0	11.7	23.3	0.8